Our MD’s talks with Bank of England Governor’s Deputy

(Outlooks and Growth 2012-2015)

(or is that better as, His talks with Me?!)

Hobnobbing and name-dropping with The Great (and, maybe, The Good)

Our Group MD participated this week in an ‘intimate’ gathering with no less a personage than the Deputy of the Governor of Bank of England, at the invitation of our RBS Corporate Bankers. He (the Deputy) was seeking in Davy Crockett scouting style (though without the skunk hat!) to get a ‘Status and Outlook’ reading from the binoculars of us ‘coal-face’ SME business leaders. He also gave us some interesting and challenging insights on where the big wise-men see our ‘seasonal climate’ likely backdrops over the next year or two; particularly the practical paradoxes of The Bank’s policies to support the funding and capital needs of businesses by our big corporate banks which the Government are ‘desperate’ to see expand and grow successfully.

Setting and Organisation of the Event

The small private dining room at Crewe Hall with its beautiful panelling and white linen place settings for twenty for luncheon certainly didn’t add to the air of open relaxed informality for the exchange of views which nice intelligent Simon (who previously was a lobbyist for the CBI) said he was looking for ... ... ... but this ‘stiffness’ was counter-acted by the fact that he had to settle for talking directly to us from his Powerpoint notes because the projector/screen was unavailable /Kaput! This was certainly just as well though! (See below!)

The ‘PPP’ Principles of Practised Hobnobbers (Position, Position, Position)

I had drifted in as ‘tail-end-Charlie’ on the in-bound procession to table, and found myself to be ‘last-man-standing’ after all my lunch companions had shown the typical English reserve, politeness, and hanging-back deference (for which we are so justly modestly famous around the world!). Thus, the only chair left for me was at ‘God’s’ left-hand (the one to his right was occupied by a lady much prettier than I, who subsequently turned out to be a solicitor, though only of the boring kind for conveyancing mortgagees into debt with their bankers!

Lunch with, or without, Refried Chips or Power points, Sir?

Accordingly, in my place right ( I mean left!) next the Great Man, I was ideally placed to observe his speaking notes on this three-to-view Powerpoint slides (as well as to pass the butter, offer him water etc. because 500 years of ‘butlering’ service do leave one with politeness instincts towards male colleagues as well as ladies!) Anyway, but for the ‘duff’ projector, I think that the Man who had come ‘to listen to us’ would have otherwise given us the treat of an hour-and-half barrage of charts (line, stack, pie, soup and nuts!) which would surely have guaranteed an unquestioning white flag surrender by any survivors from the battle of the bulge lunch!

Passive Audience becomes (slightly) Animated Actors!

As it was, however,! ... ... ... it turned out to be congenially frank and thoughtful in both directions of the conversations around the suitably elliptical table! Just over half of those 20 souls there to ask and to observe were bankers (our hosts) or auditors, financial advisers ... ... ... so I guess that makes it about representative of the same proportions that the rest of us seem to find in real life these days!

Degrees of Freedom and Constraints in the ‘Hadron Collider’ Canteen

If ‘elliptical’ and ‘frank’ seem a bit odd joined in a single sentence, it’s important to remember that there’s truth in the old proverb about ‘not biting the hand’ that you hope is going to feed you ... ... ... (at least until its clear that it won’t!)

Neither is it polite to kick sand or good white wine onto white linen in pique at the inexplicable refusal of whole wunches of bankers to give growth-inducing economic quick-start, substantial unsecured, ten-year, low-interest, capital-repayment-free, loans in the style of big corporate bonds to all SMEs that can find good use for them ... ... ...

Surely, this is what ‘QE3-SME’ ought to be all about, isn’t it? ... ... ... or are these only truly needed by those with great big commercial properties as anchors (not sure whether these are seen to be on the assets or albatrosses side and sandy bottoms of bank balance sheets these days!)

Definites, Maybes, and May-not-Bes

It may or may not be that we will all be helped indirectly by the magic of ‘trickle-down’ from Government and Bank of England policy, through further multi-billion loans and further ‘investments’ in sovereign debt of Greece, Ireland, Mexico and Brazil all over again. After all, I.O.U. £s from a ‘sovereign’ state must be more secure than ‘risky’ loans to SMEs mustn’t they? (even though the true debt value might be devalued by some healthy inflationary erosion and exchange losses between £s and sovereigns!)

Or even, from ‘Government Knows Best’ strategies through direct investments into secure ‘vital infrastructure’ projects like a new series of three-week skills transfers courses to get the unemployed assembly line workers from Bentley Crewe or BAe Wharton productive again ... ... ... as innovatory web developers, or hair stylists ... ... ... or maybe they will do a ‘direct-jugular’ injection into town-centre redevelopments, white elephant domes, virtual Camelot spires, or just more old-new state of the art fire-stations.

Making our Own Luck

Overly heavy irony and sarcasm, maybe, but the assessment from all of the above for ourselves, and our business success in 2012, is that we need to do our damndest to help all of you to succeed! ... ... ... and that you, and we, will be very well-advised not to place our faith in external helping hands, steering, buoyancy aids; and especially not banking hot-air balloons!

On the Cusp; 2011 going into Rear View, and Steering into 2012

It has been brilliant for some, and bruising for others. Regardless of what mix of good seeds, fruit, and weeds you’re celebrating or crying over on this last day of September 2011; whether for you the fat lady is singing yet, the fact is, that for almost all of our UK clients this ‘Today’ is the ‘cusp’ and cross-over point in Business Seasons between ‘current 2011’ and ‘Emerging’ 2012!

Autumn equinox passed this week, and the Harvest Festival full-moon didn’t slip late into October from its more normal mid-September timing (though many are finding that the business economic ‘flatlands’ seasons are running slower and weaker than hoped earlier in the year – unlike the natural seasonal cycles, which are wildly out of kilter the other way. Many species are starting their 2012 growing and flowering rush many months earlier than ever! ... ... ... And that’s exactly what you should be doing in your Business 2012 , starting with our Business Growth Success 2012 Workshops in early November (see separate listings for these).

Or, will the current balmy benign Indian summer weather and economic sunshine be guillotined at knees (or higher still)! by bitter winds from frozen Urals, with icy statues of fleeing bankers immortalised in Russian easterlies ice, until they thaw in five years or more from now?

John Butler

30 September 2011


PS: If, by the time we meet with you in early November, it really has transpired that Greece has fallen out of the Euro, and that an indefinite UK-wide and General Strike has been called to herald the start of a New Ice Age in January 2012 ... ... ... then we promise we shall bring you a valuable present of your own personal pair of ear muffs!